Dr. Greer is currently engaged in several interdisciplinary research projects1. Stress-Testing the Safety Net: AI-Driven Displacement and U.S. Employment Insurance SolvencyThis paper develops a fiscal stress-test model to assess whether the United States unemployment insurance (UI) system can remain solvent under plausible scenarios of AI-driven labor displacement. The model finds that under baseline actuarial parameters, the aggregate trust fund system can absorb significant displacement (12 to 18 million jobs). However, when adverse conditions that structural displacement may itself trigger, such as elevated take-up rates, extended claim durations, and concentration in low-wage-base states, are incorporated, more severe scenarios produce trust fund depletion within three to seven years. Sensitivity analysis identifies the effective taxable wage base and the state unemployment tax rate (SUTA) as the parameters with the largest modeled impact on fund balance. These findings highlight a structural mismatch in payroll-based UI financing. The analysis provides a quantitative starting point for assessing which institutional reforms, from wage-base indexation to alternative financing mechanisms, merit further analytical and legislative consideration.2. Implementation Considerations for Independent Verification OrganizationsAs states and Congress move to require frontier AI developers to retain Independent Verification Organizations (IVOs), the question is shifting from whether to verify advanced AI to how. My research examines that design space through the lens of catastrophic risk, the cyber, biological, loss-of-control, and concentration-of-power threats a verification regime exists to contain. I examine the policy design options as a continuum of enforcement, from disclosure at the weak end to a binding pre-deployment gate and licensing system at the strong end. The project concentrates on the implementation choices that decide whether various IVO design choices lowers real risk or merely supplies the appearance of oversight.3. Pathways to Sustainable Urban Water Security: Desalination and Water Reuse in the 21st CenturyThis three-year and $1.5 million grant project examines desalination and water reuse globally and across case study sites in Texas, California, Australia, and Israel. A key challenge is to identify how new technological interventions can be channeled into pathways towards sustainable water security and, in particular, to consider how anticipatory governance can be fostered to support that process. The interdisciplinary research team will examine several aspects of desalination and wastewater reuse to better understand the complex water governance regimes that promote and challenge the transformation of water-stressed urban regions.4. Risk Management and Reducing Improper Payments: A Case Study of the U.S. Department of Labor
This report continues the IBM Center’s long interest in risk management with a specific focus on employing risk management strategies to reduce improper payments in the U S Department of Labor’s (DOL) Unemployment Insurance (UI) program. There is a long tradition of public management scholarship that has provided empirical support for the hypothesis that management matters for government performance. One specific management activity that has been growing in prominence in federal agencies over the last several years is risk management. More commonly used in private sector firms, risk management has recently been recognized as a valuable tool by public organizations.Professors Greer and Bullock detail DOL’s innovative approach to improve outcomes and performance related to improper payments, which is an area of operational risk that has been identified as a legislative priority Public managers faced with operational risks, and more specifically, improper payments, can use the information presented in this report to improve, create, or adopt risk management strategies. These strategies can provide a set of tools for other agencies dealing with improper payments.

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